What’s the “REAL STATE of real estate?” Media continues to be conflicted and confused on what narrative to report. National data suggests declining units sold and price reductions, Regional and Local data tell a different story. It’s the same as looking at a glass of water filled to the middle, some will say its half full while to others its half empty, both are correct, but their perceptions are totally opposing in thought. Data should be viewed in the relevance of the locale. The new term that is going around in todays media FOMO, “fear of missing out” gets many up in arms.
A real estate purchase is typically the largest individual purchase a person/family makes in their life, and still one of the surest ways to build equity/net worth over time. Over the past 70 plus years real estate values have increased year over year, apart from the 2006-2008 financial /mortgage crisis time period when it made a correction. The individual looking at the glass half empty believes the market must crash to reset which is not correct. One of the primary reasons a residential housing crash is not coming has to do with American’s home equity. In a recent survey, it was reported that 39 percent own their home free and clear, 29 percent have more than 50 percent equity and the balance are net positive equity.
Oh, what about mortgage rates in the seven percent range. The Federal Reserve has been increasing the short-term rates over the past year, this is a function to gain control of the inflation rate which peaked last year around 9.1 percent. Historically the Fed starts raising rates too late and continues raising the rates too long. We will probably still see a couple more rate hikes before they must start cutting them. June’s inflation number will be reported before this comes to print, and the analysts are saying we should see June’s number around 3.1 percent getting closer to the 2 percent goal rate. Before the end of the year the Fed will start cutting these short-term rates and mortgage rates will follow to settle in the five percent range, some are saying we will see high four
percent rates in 2024. So, should we wait for the rates to decline before buying? No, here is where FOMO heightens, the fear of missing out comes to play. We already have an inventory shortage, less than 1.83 month’s supply and when these rates start to come down, the buyers demand is going to increase placing increased pressure on pricing. David Stevens, former President/CEO of Mortgage Bankers Association said, “This nation is standing on the front doorstep of the largest wave of home-buying demand in US History.” If you are in the need of new housing, as a buyer time is certainly not on your side.
It’s all supply/demand economics, housing prices will continue to rise giving the sellers an upper hand in the process.
As we look at the Plant City housing data for June 2023, our market area sold 92 homes for the month continuing to surpass the year-to-date average of 82.5 units per month. That number comprised of 26 new construction homes which should continue due to the new housing developments. Our housing inventory is holding around 1.83 months’ supply, still considerably less than the three to four months average supply needed for a normal market period. The inventory outlook will continue to be stressed and tighten up. Our ADOM, average days on market, last month was 37.1 about double the time it took last year to go under contract.
We now have had four months of increases in the average sold price and average price per square foot of homes sold in Plant City. In June our average sold price was $396,146 a 1.3 percent increase over May, a 7.5 percent increase year-to-date and 7.2 percent over the previous June 2022. When we look at average price per square foot, June 2023 was $206.38 per square foot, a slight decline from May but 7.8 percent increase year-to-date. This trend will continue and will increase substantially when the mortgage rates stabilize.
30-year average mortgage rates came in for the month of June at 6.71 percent but its still trending up for the time, the Fed paused the rate increase in June, but the July meeting is scheduled this 7/25-26 in which they may make another increase to stabilize the inflation component of the process. So, what about the coming months, people will be buying and selling homes, prices have turned the corner and are rising again.
If you are in the market to buy or sell your home, please seek an experienced professional Realtor® to assist you in this transaction process. There are too many consequences, going it alone without proper representation. Get the real scoop on our market. If you have any questions, want a market value analysis of your home, or see what’s available to purchase, please reach out.
M Crawford
Crawford Group
Sales Snapshot
The following residential properties were a sample listed as sold on the Greater Tampa Realtors Association MLS in June 2023 for the Plant City Market Area.
The home at 2903 Airport Rd sold June 19 for $90,000. Built in 1928, it has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and 768 square feet of living area.
The home at 1306 Union Pacific Dr sold June 5 for $205,000. Built in 2002 it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2176 square feet of living area.
The home at 1505 E Calhoun St sold June 13 for $215,000. Built in 1950, it has 2 bedrooms, 2 bath and 984 square feet of living area.
The home at 1704 E Warren St sold June 20 for $265,000. Built in 1965, it has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 960 square feet of living area.
The home at 3505 White Dandelion Ct sold June 23 for $285,990. Built in 2023, it has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1673 square feet of living area.
The home at 4407 Country Hills Blvd sold June 15 for $319,999. Built in 2005, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1316 square feet of living area.
The home at 4203 Barret Ave sold June 8 for $335,000. Built in 1989, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1514 square feet of living area.
The home at 806 Wiltonway sold June 1 for $360,000. Built in 2017, it has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 2108 square feet of living area.
The home 2702 Savannah Dr sold June 22 for $385,000. Built in 1991, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1846 square feet of living area.
The home at 1101 Sandalwood Dr sold June 14 for $415,000. Built in 2017, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1911 square feet of living area.
The home at 2701 Medulla Rd sold June 13 for $440,000. Built in 1958, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2040 square feet of living area.
The home at 3231 Alcott Ave sold June 21 for $495,000. Built in 1995, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2045 square feet of living area.
The home at 4062 El Shaddiai Sq sold June 27 for $715,000. Built in 1975, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2997 square feet of living area.
The home at 1403 S Wiggins Rd sold June 8 for $875,000. Built in 1971, it has 6 bedrooms, 5 bath and 5679 square feet of living area.
The home at 5938 Hovan Ave sold June 16 for $1,500,000. Built in 1991, it has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1996 square feet of living area.