Want to win an NCAA tournament bracket pool? The best strategy may be the ‘worst.’
The guy who won the 2018 March Madness bracket pool I entered had no idea what he was doing.
I’m serious. When it came time to hand in our finished brackets, he turned in a sheet that only had first-round picks filled out. “I didn’t know we were supposed to do the whole thing,” he said before going back to finish it quickly. Next thing we know, he correctly predicted three of the Final Four teams and got a chunk of money to buy some nice golf balls.
I, meanwhile, got all analytical with it and talked myself into trusting Arizona to win it all. My bracket got smoked in the first round by maybe the second-most popular college team from my hometown. Chandler Workman, our advertising executive and one of several Plant City Observer staffers who joined the pool, thought it was funny until his pick, top overall seed Virginia, became the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed in tournament history. We both thought we outsmarted everyone else because we follow college hoops closely.
Readers, I’m telling you right now that is a terrible idea.
There’s a reason March Madness bracket pools carry a stereotype. You’ll often hear “I just picked which uniforms I like best,” or “My girlfriend picked teams based on their mascots,” or “I have no idea what I’m doing, but everyone else is doing it.” People who actually play like this tend to do well because college basketball’s biggest tournament is not governed by reason, at least not until you get to the Final Four. I would know — I’ve lost money and bragging rights to these people.
If you want to do well, you have to embrace your inner George Costanza and, in many games, do the opposite of whatever you would normally do. Do the opposite of what people like myself, who stay glued to sports media and follow college hoops, would do.
Of course, the Final Four is a bit different. You’re generally going to get two to three teams seeded 1 or 2 in there most years, and there are always a few 3 and lowers that get hot at the right time and run through their regions. Loyola-Chicago was an unusually low seed for this Final Four, but anyone who watched the Ramblers play during the tournament could see it wasn’t a fluke — those guys may have been underrated going into the tourney.
A 1 seed has won the title in five of the last six seasons. The exception was 2014, when UConn became the first 7 seed to get to (and win) the championship game. Villanova won Monday night and in 2016, and my opinion is Jay Wright’s on the cusp of forming a dynasty out in Philadelphia. That school is a rare safe pick for the time being.
If you have to go by any statistic for the tournament, look at the teams that can knock down three-point shots. “Defense wins championships” is an enduring sports cliché that, at least in college basketball, is starting to go by the wayside. Villanova’s defense can be tough, sure, but they smacked around their opponents throughout the tournament because they take and make a ton of threes. This is the meta that basketball as a whole is transitioning to.
I tell myself every year that I’m finally going to pick against logic, but I can never do it. I could tell you right now that next year will be different, but I know full well it won’t. You don’t have to make these mistakes — you can go make totally random picks, get clowned on by the “nerds” like me for a few days and go on to win your pool in early April.
